NRC Research Associate Programs
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Participating Agencies - NOAA

Opportunity at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Multi-resolution ensemble design for Warn-on-Forecast

Location

National Severe Storms Laboratory

RO# Location
26.76.00.C0730 Norman, OK 73072

Advisers

name email phone
Corey Keith Potvin corey.potvin@noaa.gov 405.325.6118

Description

A growing priority for the experimental NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) is the exploration of ensemble design strategies that will enable ~1-km data assimilation and/or forecast grids to be used in real-time. Downscaling 3-km analyses to ~1-km grids for the free forecast integration has shown some benefits (Lawson et al. 2020; Miller et al. 2022), but retaining 3-km grid spacing for the data assimilation is a potentially major limitation. Unfortunately, ~1-km ensemble data assimilation is currently prohibitively expensive. Multi-resolution data assimilation, where both high- and low-resolution members are used during cycling, offer a potential solution. Once a fully ~1-km WoFS becomes computationally feasible, multi-resolution data assimilation may enable still higher-resolution (e.g., 500-m grid spacing) analyses and forecasts.

Research proposals are invited on all aspects of multi-resolution data assimilation. Several years of warm season forecasts from the WoFS will be made available to the successful applicant.

Miller, W., C. K. Potvin, M. L. Flora, B. Gallo, L. Wicker, T. Jones, P. Skinner, B. Matilla, and K. Knopfmeier, 2022: Exploring the usefulness of downscaling free forecasts from the Warn-on-Forecast System. Wea. Forecasting, 37, 181-203.

Lawson, J. R., C. K. Potvin, P. S. Skinner, and A. E. Reinhart, 2021: The vice and virtue of increased horizontal resolution in ensemble forecasts of tornadic thunderstorms in low-CAPE, high-shear environments. Mon. Wea. Rev., 149, 921-944.

Keywords:
ensembles; prediction; data assimilation; thunderstorms; severe weather

Eligibility

Citizenship:  Open to U.S. citizens, permanent residents and non-U.S. citizens
Level:  Open to Postdoctoral and Senior applicants

Stipend

Base Stipend Travel Allotment Supplementation
$60,000.00 $3,000.00

$24,000 Supplement for Doctorates in Electrical Engineering

Experience Supplement:
Postdoctoral and Senior Associates will receive an appropriately higher stipend based on the number of years of experience past their PhD.

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