Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Hurricane Research Division (HRD) conducts cutting-edge research on tropical cyclones using a combination of models, theories, and observations, with particular emphasis on data obtained by research aircraft and NOAA high-resolution hurricane modeling systems. The goal of this research is to improve the prediction of 1- to 7-day forecasts of tropical cyclone track, intensity, structure, precipitation, and their impacts.
HRD is interested in research during the entire tropical cyclone lifecycle from genesis to decay, landfall, or extratropical transition in any of the following physical processes:
1. Air-sea and boundary-layer processes - research of dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the atmospheric boundary layer and the adjacent upper ocean that impact tropical cyclone structure and intensity change; quantitative assessment of their impact on tropical cyclone energetics and intensity change.
2. Vortex- and convective-scale processes and multiscale interactions - improved understanding of the role of symmetric/asymmetric vortex dynamics, convective-scale processes, and their interactions with the environment on TC track, structure, and intensity change.
3. Turbulent-scale processes - analysis of in situ and remote-sensing aircraft observations throughout the atmosphere to quantify turbulent fluxes, turbulent intensity, and mixing length for improved representation and parameterization of tropical cyclone models.
HRD is also interested in research and development of existing and emerging observation and model/data assimilation systems in order to improve tropical cyclone forecasts, including the use of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and cloud computing:
4. Existing and emerging observational technologies - research that advances the automated processing of data collected in tropical cyclones and development of new observing technologies, including uncrewed systems and remote sensing and in situ instrumentation, to better observe and characterize regions of the tropical cyclone and its environment typically undersampled by existing technologies.
5. Numerical weather prediction - advancement of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS), including improved model numerics and grid configurations, physical parameterization evaluation and development, model post-processing and visualization, and process studies.
6. Data assimilation - research on data assimilation methods, algorithm improvement, optimal utilization of observations, new observational platforms, representation of model error, and parameter estimation relevant to tropical cyclones and their environments, with emphasis on both aircraft and satellite data, and employing Observing System Experiments and Observing System Simulation Experiments
tropical cyclones; hurricanes; numerical modeling; regional modeling; data assimilation; observations; boundary layer; coupled models; OSSEs; OSEs