Proper evaluation of very short-range, storm-scale ensemble forecasts requires techniques that are tailored to individual storms. Storm-based verification techniques improve not only the evaluation of Warn-on-Forecast (WoF) systems (Flora et al. 2019; Potvin et al. 2020), but also assessments of thunderstorm predictability, for which traditional verification methods can produce misleading results (Flora et al. 2018).
Research proposals are invited on all aspects of storm-scale verification and predictability metrics. Several years of warm season forecasts from the experimental NSSL WoF System will be made available to the successful applicant.
Flora, M. L., C. K. Potvin, and L. J. Wicker, 2018: Practical Predictability of Supercells: Exploring Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Initial Condition Spread. Mon. Wea. Rev., 146, 2361–2379, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0374.1.
Flora, M. L., P. S. Skinner, C. K. Potvin, A. E. Reinhart, T. A. Jones, N. Yussouf, and K. H. Knopfmeier, 2019: Object-Based Verification of Short-Term, Storm-Scale Probabilistic Mesocyclone Guidance from an Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 1721–1739, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0094.1.
Potvin, C. K., and Coauthors, 2020: Assessing Systematic Impacts of PBL Schemes on Storm Evolution in the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast System. Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 2567–2590, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0389.1.