Dr. Yussouf's research is on development of a storm-scale ensemble prediction system with the goal of enabling next-generation severe storm warning capabilities referred to as Warn-on-Forecast to support the United States' vision for a Weather Ready Nation. Her work involves enhancement of a frequently updated, regional-scale, on-demand, probabilistic, high-resolution (~0.5-1 km) ensemble data assimilation and prediction system for high-impact weather events, including extreme rainfall , flash floods, tornado outbreaks, major aviation disruptions due to severe convective thunderstorms, and landfalling tropical cyclones. She is developing capabilities that can be incorporated into the operational National Weather Service (NWS) stormscale ensemble data assimilation and forecast systems. Research opportunities exist in one or more of the following topics:
1. Development and testing of storm-scale ensemble-based data assimilation (e.g. ensemble Kalman filter, hybrid ensemble-variationa l, etc.) techniques for probabilistic short-range forecasts of multi hazard events.
2. Improvement of probabilistic flash flood forecasts using a coupled storm-scale atmospheric and distributed hydrological ensemble framework.
3. Identification of model resolution required to predict probabilistic properties of storm characteristics, such as low-level rotations, flash floods producing extreme rainfall, damaging winds and large hail.
4. Improvement of storm-scale weather prediction by reducing errors particularly in the planetary boundary layer and model microphysical schemes through advancement of improved assimilation of new/existing observational capabilities or data sets that are not currently operational at NWS.
5. Improvement of ensemble reliability and spread by designing/configuring storm-scale ensemble systems using multiphysics and/or stochastic physics techniques.
6. Development of forecast verification techniques and tools for storms based on comparison of forecasts with analyses and observational data sets.
Storm-scale numerical weather prediction model; High impact weather prediction; Data assimilation; Forecast verification; Observation impact; Ensemble Design; Landfalling Tropical Cyclones; Ensemble forecasting; Flash flood forecasting