|Miller, Timothy J
A general state-space stock assessment framework for the Northeast Fisheries Science Center is currently being developed. However, the framework needs to be extended to implement sub-models for incorporating environmental or climate effects on stock productivity or demographic attributes. Incorporating parallel state-space models for environmental attributes of the ecosystem (e.g., Miller et al. 2016 and Miller et al. in press) would provide an assessment tool to make statistically reliable inferences on the predictive importance of these covariates on fish stocks. Collaborations on current and past projects have investigated or are investigating environmental effects on recruitment and maximum sustained yield for yellowtail flounder and maturity and growth of Atlantic cod.
The priority of this research will be to extend the single-species state-space assessment models to incorporate time series models for environmental characteristics and effects on life-history attributes of the assessed stock. The possible stocks to which we may apply the augmented state-space assessment software includes Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank Atlantic cod, Georges Bank and Gulf of Maine-Cape Cod yellowtail flounder, Gulf of Maine, Southern New England, and Georges Bank winter flounder, summer flounder, silver hake, Atlantic butterfish, but to maximize impact, the realized applications will be a function of the calendar of benchmark assessments for 2020-2021 at the Northeast Fisheries Science Center. The post-doctoral collaborator will develop the capacity of the assessment model framework to include the environmental time series models, identify stocks and environmental drivers to investigate, publish peer-review articles on this research, and present the work at scientific and stock assessment working group meetings.
Miller, T. J., Hare, J. A., and Alade, L. A. 2016. A state-space approach to incorporating environmental effects on recruitment in an age-structured assessment model with an application to Southern New England yellowtail flounder. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 73(8): 1261-1270. doi:10.1139/cjfas-2015-0339.
Miller, T. J., O’Brien, L., and Fratantoni, P. S. In press. Temporal and environmental variation in growth and maturity and effects on management reference points of Georges Bank Atlantic cod. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. doi: 10.1139/cjfas-2017-0124